The Collapse of the Middle East

Whenever the Middle East pops up, the average person immediately thinks of Israel, Afghanistan, or Iraq. This week, however, exposed the weakness of one of the most stable governments in the area, Iran. I have always admired the Islamic Republic of Iran for doing something that so few powers could accomplish--the amalgam of religion and secular rule. The harmony that has prevailed since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979, however, appears to be on the verge of collapse.

The problem begins with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself. While the Supreme Leader maintains ultimate authority in terms of the military and foreign affairs, the president placed allies in key positions and offices in order to consolidate power. Because of his control and extremism, Ahmadinejad has isolated my generation from the older. The tension between young and old, religious and secular, is exploding. But as the Council on Foreign Relations notes,

The supreme leader's decision to delegate responsibility to the Guardian Council was classic Khamenei in the sense that he doesn't cede authority--the Guardian Council is essentially under his jurisdiction--but he buys time and deflects accountability. He was calculating that if he could buy time, the scale of these protests would gradually diminish. So far, that hasn't been the case. He may eventually be faced with a situation of whether to sacrifice President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose "reelection" he announced, or go down himself with the ship.

This places the all-powerful Khamenei in a precarious position. If he fails to establish the legitimacy of the elections, the country could split in two. Not only is this bad for the Iranians, it would further the chaos within the Middle East for the West. With Ahmadinejad in power, we had someone with whom we could negotiate--albeit not much. The Ayatollah controlled extremist groups that made him look like an Atheist. If he were to lose control of these elements, Western operations in the Middle East would be far worse than we could ever imagine. The Shi'ah element of Iran would support and ally with the Shi'ah in Iraq, furthering the religious schism there. OPEC could crumble without one of its key members maintaining stability.

The real question is: should the United States intervene? In order to maintain some semblance of legitimacy, the answer is no. This is an internal power struggle between the conservative status quo and more moderate reformers. Obama is now in a dangerous situation. He attacks Iranian leaders saying,

We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.

The United States needs to back off. We cannot afford to get stuck in another power struggle. In the end, it is better for the West to have Ahmadinejad in power than to have a civil war.